Earthquakes Can Bring You Down
-also included are:
Nature of the earthquake and it's assumed consequences
How to be prepared for a disastrous earthquake

There have been news and rumors in and around Kathmandu about the possible major earthquake that is thought to destroy 60% of the valley's buildings and infrastructures. We will obviously suffer the scars which the disaster will carve on our lives, and of course there wouldn't be any Bin Ladens to hunt for or anything to do to overcome the pain, so you know what it would be like if we do not take necessary precautions to minimize the risks involved.

In spite of these stories in schools, colleges, offices and in the streets, things are still as they were and there have not been any signs as of yet, which give an impression that the inhabitants of the valley are taking any necessary precautions for the mentioned natural disaster that is believed to strike Kathmandu at any moment. Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, the biggest city in fact, may not have the power and ability to prosper the entire country in a year or two, but it certainly will cause much pain and chaos in various aspects of the Nepalese society and economy, in less than a day - but then, that's only if the earthquake strikes the city as bad as it has been pictured by the geological department of Nepal. Let's take science seriously for the human civilization has been resting on it since the discovery of fire. And when scientists warn us, we ought to be careful and take necessary precautions for our own safety.

We know that 60% of the valley is possibly going to be under the rubbles of hopes and dreams of the ambitious Kathmanduits when the foretold disaster strikes. And the comical thing about it all is, when I discussed the issue with my friends, colleagues, and others, everybody I have talked to, have the notion that they are not going to be included in that 60%. Then who are going to be the victims of this infamous disaster? When it comes to the bitter part of life, people often say, 'that's not my share', and that is ignorance, something I would regard as more dangerous than the earthquake itself. So we have got to be wise and instead of making complaints against government agencies or any other institutions, we have to do something by ourselves, for each one of us, for our own existence.

There surely is nothing we can do to stop this, but to be prepared for the foretold disaster so that we and our loved ones do not end up underneath the rubbles. Science is no joke, and she wants us to listen to what she has to say. It's only a matter of time, and just a matter of life and death … but it isn't just a matter of luck, not to be included in that 60%.

NATURE OF THE EARTHQUAKE AND IT'S ASSUMED CONSEQUENCES

According to the geological and demographical context of the Kathmandu Valley, an unprecedented disaster is to be feared when a large earthquake, comparable with the Turkey earthquake of August 1999 (magnitude 7.2) and even larger, will occur…

-The large earthquake, of magnitude 8 or more, will be shallow (10 to 30km deep) and will last a few minutes…

-We expect that the earthquake will induce a displacement of few meters (about 4 to 6m), concerning hundreds of square kilometers in area, from the North Mountains to the plain of the Teraï in the South. However, this large area will not move like a rigid block. The heterogeneousness at different scales (nature of the rocks, reliefs, constructions…), some inherited structures (faults…), will generate more or less localized and preferential displacements.

-In mountainous areas, the earthquakes will induce many landslides and rock falls. The Kathmandu Valley is a basin filled with soft sediments. However, at the North and the South of this basin, hard rocks constitute the mountains. In such a context, the seismic waves will be trapped inside the Valley, inducing amplification phenomena:

-An experience evidenced that for a similar earthquake, recorded by a sensor in the Kathmandu Valley and another one in the mountains, in Kakani, an average amplification of 6 times was measured in the Valley. Houses or buildings which have more than two floors are particularly concerned (Fig. 4), because of their resonance frequency and the general bad quality of the constructions in the Kathmandu Valley.

- Locally the sediment of the Valley, water saturated, will induce liquefaction phenomena (the ground, stirred up during the seismic waves passage, loses cohesion and becomes like quicksand). For example, the first floor of buildings can become the ground floor after the shock (see the Fig. 6 and 7)…

- At least 60 or 70% of the Kathmandu Valley human structures and facilities will be damaged or destroyed.

-The international and domestic airport will be out of order.

-The access roads to the Valley will be out of order, the earthquake inducing many landslides.

-Water supply, electricity and telephone lines will be cut; so water, electricity and the telephone will not be available for at least a few days or a few weeks…

-There will be a risk of firebreak out, caused by explosions due to gas, petrol or leaks of chemical products.

-The estimation for the arrival of first aid from outside the Kingdom of Nepal is at least 3 or 4 days.

-Epidemics due to bad sanitary conditions will appear, faster during the monsoon (after a few days only), mainly because of the victims' corpses (one study realized by the NSET-NEPAL* estimates that if an earthquake identical to the 1934 earthquake - which had a magnitude of around 8 and the epicenter located about 200 km East of Kathmandu - occurs again, there will be at least tens of thousands of deaths and hundreds of thousands of injured): all the bodies will have to be quickly grouped in order to be buried or preferably to be cremated.

-Pillaging and violence will have to be feared. The army will have the difficult task of maintaining order as well as coordinating first aid.

HOW TO BE PREPARED FOR A DISASTROUS EARTHQUAKE
Inside, safe places are:
-Under sturdy furnitures such as heavy desk or table,
-Against an inside wall, close to door frames, angles in weight bearing walls, corridors near supporting pillars,
-Away from where glass could shatter around windows, mirrors, pictures or from where heavy bookcases or other heavy furniture could fall over,

Outside, safe places are:
-Empty fields, away from buildings, trees, telephone and electric lines, overpasses, balconies, plain brick walls.

-When identified, try to fix all unsafe situations, which could be harmful if they fall over (inside: heavy furniture, statues, frames, mirrors, etc; outside: water supply on the roofs, flower pots, etc).

-Remove all unnecessary objects from your house (on the roof, on balconies…).

-Check that the extinguisher in your home or in office functions properly. Inform your circle how to use it.

-Discuss with your circle about this notice and the behavior they should follow in case of an earthquake.

-Don't keep the gas switched on when it is not necessary (for example during the night).

-Maintain a 3-day emergency supply. Store it in an area where it can be reached easily even if your building will be badly damaged (inside or outside). This supply should include the following items: Non perishable food (canned, dehydrated soup or noodles, dry fruit, chocolate, milk powder, salt, sugar, etc), Water, Some clothes and blankets,

- A first aid kit that includes your family's prescribed medicines (for baby, cardiac, diabetic, asthmatic persons, etc),

- Some tools and utilities (hammer, axe, crowbar, torchlight and batteries, battery operated radio, thick working gloves, cooking pot, multifunction knife, extra batteries…),

- Important family's documents (passport, identity card, insurance and bank papers…).

- The plan of your house or building (you can also give one copy to your responsible institution). It will be helpful for the rescue operations to identify places where they could find people, if the edifice is collapsed.

-Define a clear safe area (near your home, the school of your children, your office…) as a meeting point where your circle will have to gather after the earthquake.

- Ask a person out of Nepal (for example in India) to serve as a " family contact ".
- After the earthquake, it is often easier to obtain an international telephone line.
- Make sure everyone in the family knows the name, phone number and e-mail of this contact person.

- Take a first aid training course. It will allow you to help people around you more efficiently in case of emergency.

- Try to identify children (or an older person) who may lose control during the earthquake and behave irresponsibly.

-Evaluate the strength of your house and possibly start reinforcements. This is called retrofitting. You can ask for further information from NSET-NEPAL.

If Outdoors:
-Move to clear spaces away from buildings, walls, trees, and electric lines.

- If you are in a car stop and remain there. If possible, avoid stopping near tall buildings or overpasses, bridges… The car will protect you from flying debris.
If during the shock you are in Asan, New Road or Thamel (for example) and however in a clear space, you are simply very lucky!

And just after the main shock?
Be prepared for aftershocks…
Aftershocks can occur in the first hours, days, weeks and even months after the quake. Although generally smaller than the main shock, aftershocks cause additional damages and may collapse weakened structures. So don't go inside any edifices. However, if you really need to, then be extremely sensitive: if you smell gas, petrol, chemical products or if you hear blowing or hissing noise, then open a window, if possible, and leave the building without touching any phone or electrical switches. Quickly inform the rescue of this situation.
After gathering your circle (family, house employees, neighbors…), move to a previously defined clear zone. Contact embassy or hotel or government office (depending on your nationality and the possibilities) in order to make the rescue organization easier.
Do not use phones. The phone systems will be badly damaged and it will be needed by the rescue operations as priority.
Help injured or trapped persons. If you know, give first aid where appropriate.
Be careful of dogs or other animals after an earthquake: even familiar animals may become excited and they may bite without any reason.
If you are trapped inside a collapsed building, you must remain quiet, breathe slowly and believe in your survival, even if you have to wait several hours or days. In Mexico, in 1985, survivors were recovered after 12 days… Conversely, panicking can exhaust the resources of the body very quickly (in a few hours). Do not shout to call for rescue, wait for signals from outside, use a whistle (if you have one) or anything else to reply to outside signals, if you cannot talk because of the dust.
Start to clean up dangerous objects spilled all over, but do not touch electrical cables fallen on the ground; this has to be done by a trained person only.

Do not leave any child alone. Talk and play with the smaller children.
Kathmandu Valley's Earthquake Scenario available in
English and Nepalese.

For more Information on this issue contact:
National Society for Earthquake Technology
Kha 2-731, Mahadevsthan,
P.O. box: 13 775
Baneshwor,
Kathmandu, Nepal
Tel.: 977-1-474192
Fax: 977-1-490943
Email: nset@mos.com.np